Invest 94L was designated Potential Tropical Cyclone Six (PTC 6) yesterday afternoon. As of the 11 AM AST/EDT advisory PTC 6 was centered about 220 miles east-southeast of Ponce, Puerto Rico moving west-northwest at 18 mph. Maximum sustained winds were 35 mph with a minimum central pressure of 1012 mb.
A hurricane hunter aircraft currently investigating the PTC 6 has yet to find a well-defined center of circulation. Thus, it is not yet a tropical cyclone.
A subtropical ridge (high pressure) will keep PTC 6 moving west-northwest through at least the next three days. PTC 6 will pass very near, and possibly over, Puerto Rico this afternoon and tonight, and then likely over, or at least very near, Hispaniola tomorrow.
Conditions remain conducive for organization/strengthening at the moment with the only impediment being some dry air. Considering this, it is still likely PTC 6 will become a tropical depression or storm within the next 24 hours. After this, interaction with Hispaniola will likely disrupt the system/cause weakening.
By Thursday PTC 6 will move into the Bahamas as it continues to be steered to the west-northwest by the subtropical ridge. By Saturday a turn to the northwest is expected as PTC 6 rounds the western extent of the subtropical ridge.
At this point in time model guidance is in relatively good agreement on PTC 6 moving into the eastern Gulf this weekend, possibly moving across a portion of the Florida Peninsula first. However, being 4 – 5 days away, changes are possible.
Furthermore, intensity continues to be uncertain beyond tomorrow. This is because we still don’t know the extent of land interaction PTC 6 will have with the Greater Antilles or what the environment will look like in the Bahamas and eastern Gulf this weekend/early next week.
The National Hurricane Center is currently forecasting steady/slight intensification as the system moves through the Bahamas and eastern Gulf. The NHC forecast has a strong tropical storm in the eastern Gulf by Sunday morning.
Assuming PTC 6 develops into a tropical storm as expected, it will take the name Fred.
If you live anywhere in the southeast U.S. PTC 6 is nothing to be too concerned about at this time. Having said that, it would be a good idea to monitor its progress.
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