Elsa has weakened back to a tropical storm after attaining hurricane status while moving through the Lesser Antilles yesterday morning.
As of the 2 PM EDT advisory, Elsa had maximum sustained winds of 70 mph, a minimum central pressure of 1002 mb, and was moving west-northwest at 29 mph.
It is possible Elsa could reintensify some over the next 24 – 36 hours barring the center moving into Jamaica, Haiti or eastern Cuba. This is because the primary reason for Elsa weakening/struggling is the fast forward speed, and it is forecast to decrease within the next 12 -24 hours.
Regardless, Elsa will make landfall in Cuba at some point, and this will cause (further) weakening.
Elsa will likely move into the southeast Gulf of Mexico or Florida Straits Monday or Tuesday before turning to the north and then northeast. However, where exactly this turn takes place is uncertain.
The GFS ensembles indicate wide range of possible outcomes. Some ensemble members bring Elsa toward the northeast Gulf Coast. Others turn Elsa northeast fairly quickly into south Florida and western Bahamas.
The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center has Elsa moving into the eastern Gulf early next week and then turning northeast and tacking across the Florida peninsula. This aligns well with the latest track guidance which has come into better agreement compared to the past few days.
If Elsa does move into the eastern Gulf, some intensification will once again be possible. However, most of the intensity guidance, and the National Hurricane Center, keep Elsa at tropical storm strength.
Regardless of exact track/intensity, much of the Florida Keys and Florida Peninsula are likely to see some impacts from Elsa early/mid next week.
