Invest 92L is highly likely to develop into a tropical cyclone tomorrow or Friday. The National Hurricane Center has increased the chance of development to 70 percent over the next 2 days and 90 percent over the next 5 days.
Starting tomorrow Invest 92L will begin to lift north out of the Bay of Campeche. While unlikely to prevent Invest 92L from becoming a tropical cyclone, a combination of westerly/southwesterly wind shear and dry air is still expected to prevent Invest 92L from becoming too organized.
We still don’t know where exactly Invest 92L will make landfall. This is because there is still some model variability.
After shifting toward the Texas/Louisiana border yesterday, model guidance has shifted back east, with the most recent runs of the ECMWF and GFS bringing Invest 92L into southeast Louisiana late Friday or early Saturday.
We will likely see models continue to struggle until a tropical cyclone actually forms and there is a center for them to initialize on.
Despite this, we know enough to narrow down the likely landfall zone to between Galveston, TX and Grand Isle, LA. Timing would be late Friday or early Saturday.
The primary impact from Invest 92L will be heavy rain and potential flooding from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.
Other threats/hazards will include high seas/rough surf, a high risk for rip currents along the northern Gulf Coast, minor coastal flooding/storm surge, and a risk for isolated tornadoes with outerbands/squalls.
Outerbands/squalls could begin to arrive along the northern Gulf Coast as early as Friday morning.
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