You might or might not have seen some chatter on social media about possible tropical development in the western Caribbean/Gulf of Mexico toward the middle of this month. Model guidance has been hinting at the potential for the past week or so, prompting the speculation.
While details remain murky, and operational model solutions are still off and on with the idea of development, it is looking less and less likely that this is a “false alarm.”
Ensembles have remained fairly consistent with the idea of tropical cyclogenesis in the Caribbean/Gulf during the week of the 14th. Additionally, the National Hurricane Center has now made mention of the possibility in their Tropical Weather Outlook.
ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMMTropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Jun 7 2021For the North Atlantic…Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. An area of low pressure is expected to develop over the southwestern
Caribbean Sea by Thursday or Friday. Some gradual development will
be possible thereafter as the system moves slowly northwestward
toward Central America.
* Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days…low…20 percent.Forecaster Reinhart/Blake
They have highlighted the southwest Caribbean for possible development. It is expected that a broad area of low pressure is going to develop in the vicinity of Central America as early as late this week with gradual development possible after.
Having said that, there is still a lot of uncertainty. One reason for this is because the low will likely form from something called a Central American Gyre (CAG).
CAGs frequently lead to tropical development early and late in the hurricane season. However, they often contain multiple lows/areas of vorticity. So, while we might get a tropical cyclone in the Caribbean or Gulf from the CAG, it could be from an entirely different entity than whatever forms in the southwest Caribbean.
For example, one solution that model guidance has portrayed is a tropical cyclone initially forming in the east Pacific along the coast of Central America early next week and then crossing over into the Bay of Campeche. In fact, this is what the latest run of the ECMWF shows.
If a tropical cyclone does develop (or cross over from the east Pacific), it likely won’t be until early next week at the earliest.
There is a possibility that any system in the Caribbean or Bay of Campeche next week could get pulled north by a trough over the eastern half of the country.
At this time this is nothing to be too concerned about and development is not a guarantee. Just know the potential is there and watch for updates.
