Eta a Threat to South Florida, Florida Keys; Likely to Track into Eastern Gulf Next Week

Eta formed this past Saturday and rapidly intensified to a category 4 hurricane before making landfall in Nicaragua Tuesday.

The formation of Eta has tied the 2020 Atlantic hurricane season with 2005 for the number of named storms.

Eta has since weakened to a tropical depression over Central America, but will be moving back over water (northwest Caribbean) tonight/tomorrow.

It is likely Eta will become a tropical storm again tomorrow or Saturday as this is predicted by the GFS, ECMWF, and the intensity guidance. However, wind shear will be increasing, and this should keep intensity in check.

Eta will turn northeast tomorrow due to a tough over the Gulf of Mexico. This will put Eta on a track toward Cuba, and possibly the Bahamas. However, a turn to the north/northwest is likely Sunday as a ridge (high pressure) builds across the eastern U.S. and southwest Atlantic.

While it is likely Eta will impact south Florida and the Florida Keys this weekend/early next week before tracking into the eastern/southeastern Gulf, it is not known if Eta will make landfall in south Florida or the Florida Keys.

Interests in south Florida and the Florida Keys should closely monitor the forecast for Eta over the coming days. Interests along the north and eastern Gulf Coast should also monitor the progress of Eta.

Caleb Carmichael
Caleb Carmichael

Caleb is the owner of Gulf Coast Storm Center. He is currently an undergraduate student at Mississippi State University majoring in geoscience with a concentration in broadcast and operational meteorology. While not yet a meteorologist, Caleb has been providing weather updates, news, and analysis for the Gulf Coast since 2014.

Articles: 884