Sally rapidly intensified into a hurricane this morning, and has since become a category 2 hurricane.
As of the 4 PM CDT advisory maximum sustained winds were 100 mph, the central pressure was 987 mb, and movement was west-northwest at 6 mph.
Forecast for Sally
Given the episode of rapid intensification, it is now probable Sally will become a strong category 2, or perhaps even a category 3, before landfall. This is a significant change since this morning’s update, when rapid intensification was looking less likely.
Additionally, model guidance has shifted east throughout the day. It now appears the center of Sally will come ashore somewhere along the Mississippi or Alabama Gulf Coast late tomorrow or early Wednesday.
However, there is still some uncertainty, and a southeast Louisiana landfall is still within the realm of possibilities.
Impacts
Due to the eastward shift in track, a greater wind and surge impact is now possible for portions of southwest Alabama and the the western Florida Panhandle. Aside from this, there have been no changes with regard to impacts.
A storm surge of up to 11′ is still forecast for portions of southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi.
Hurricane-force winds (> 74 mph) remain likely in southeast Louisiana, south Mississippi, and southwest Alabama. In addition, hurricane-force winds are now possible for portions of the western Florida Panhandle (within the Hurricane Warning area, see watch/warning summary below).
Tropical-storm-force winds (> 39 mph) also remain likely along the Florida Panhandle. Furthermore, anywhere from 6 to 20″ of rain is still likely across southeast Louisiana, south Mississippi, southwest Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle.
It is also still expected the decrease in forward speed will exacerbate the issue of storm surge and flash flooding.
Lastly, a threat for waterspouts/tornadoes continues to exist as outer bands/squalls come onshore.
Warning/Watch Summary
A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for…
* Port Fourchon Louisiana to the Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida
* Lake Pontchartrain, Lake Maurepas, and Lake Borgne
* Mobile Bay
A Hurricane Warning is in effect for…
* Morgan City Louisiana to the Navarre Florida
* Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas including metropolitan New
Orleans
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for…
* East of of Navarre Florida to Indian Pass Florida
