The two tropical waves we have been watching are now invests. Invest 97L is the leading wave and will reach the west Caribbean by Thursday or Friday, and the wave back toward Africa is Invest 98L.
Invest 97L
Invest 97L is not very organized. This is mostly because of the system’s fast forward speed (it is moving at about 20 mph). However, once Invest 97L arrives in the west Caribbean it is expected to slow.
The latest SHIPS diagnostic message indicates Invest 97L will have a moist environment with low wind shear in the Caribbean. If Invest 97L can put on the breaks, this could allow for tropical cyclone (TC) formation.
Both the GFS and UKMET were predicting development of Invest 97L as of the 12z model cycle. There is also some support for development from both the ECMWF ensembles (EPS) and GFS ensembles (GEFS).
The National Hurricane Center is giving Invest 97L a high chance (80%) of developing into a TC over the next 5 days.
Invest 97L will likely track into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. However, it is to early to know if it will impact the Gulf Coast or not. It should also be noted that while the chance of development is currently high, it is still possible Invest 97L doesn’t develop.
Invest 98L
Invest 98L currently also has a high chance of development. It too isn’t all that organized. The latest 850 mb vorticity analysis indicates it is elongated/broad.
However, environmental conditions will be conducive for development for at least the next day or two. As of the 12z model cycle, only the UKMET was predicting Invest 98L to develop into a TC. But there is ample support from the EPS and GEFS for development of Invest 98L.
The National Hurricane Center is giving Invest 98L a high chance (90%) of developing into a TC over the next 5 days.
While it is still too early to know if Invest 98L will impact the U.S. or not.
