A USAF reconnaissance aircraft has found Cristobal a bit stronger this morning. TheĀ pressure is down to 992 mb and max sustained winds are up to 50 mph.
Despite the increase in strength, Cristobal is disorganized. Most of the deep convection (thunderstorm activity) is displaced well to the north and east of the center.
Forecast for Cristobal
Cristobal will continue to intensify. However, mid-level dry air entertainment will inhibit significant intensification.
Model guidance is in unanimous agreement on the center of Cristobal coming ashore in southeast Louisiana tomorrow afternoon/evening.
Cristobal will likely be a high-end tropical storm at landfall.
Impacts
Impacts from Cristobal will be far reaching due to the storm being so asymmetrical. The first outberbands could move into the northern Gulf Coast this evening.
Here are the June 6 4am CDT key messages on TS #Cristobal. Heavy rain, gusty winds, and storm surge will be possible along portions of the northern Gulf Coast beginning as soon as tonight. Full advisory: https://t.co/tW4KeFW0gB Local info: https://t.co/SiZo8ohZMN pic.twitter.com/7r6FO9ZlDl
ā National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) June 6, 2020
Tropical storm force winds can be expected from Louisiana to the western Florida Panhandle. Additionally, there will be a heavy rain/flash flood threat from Louisiana to Florida.
Storm surge/coastal flooding is also likely from southeast Louisiana to the Florida Big Bend.
There will be potential for isolated tornadoes/waterspouts within the outerbands as well.
