A few strong to severe storms will be possible from east Texas into north Louisiana and Mississippi this evening into the overnight along/ahead of a cold front.
The Storm Prediction Center has removed the level 2 (slight) risk, but has maintained a level 1 (marginal) risk (see figure 2).
Toward the Ark-La-Tex region a broken line/cluster of storms should evolve this evening. The main threat will be damaging winds, but a tornado or two can’t be ruled out.
Down into east Texas there is potential for widely scattered storms to develop early overnight/early tomorrow morning. Should any storms form, there is a chance they could produce hail.
The severe weather threat will shift into Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle tomorrow, where a level 2 risk for severe weather is in place (see figure 1).
Timing looks to be tomorrow afternoon into tomorrow evening. Per high-resolution model guidance a mixed convective (storm) mode is likely, and supercell development can’t be ruled out.
Tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail will all be possible.
Another round of severe weather will be possible Thursday for Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.
A squall line will likely develop ahead of the cold front Thursday morning (see figure 3) and move quickly east.
The primary threat with this would be damaging wind gusts. However, the tornado threat would be non-zero.
