A multi-day, and possibly significant, severe weather episode is expected to unfold across the Ark-La-Tex and Deep South Friday into Saturday.
A strong mid-upper trough is going to dig into the Southern Plains Thursday/Friday. Meanwhile, at the surface, a low is likely to form and move into the Tennessee Valley/Ohio Valley by Saturday, dragging a cold front with it.
There will likely be development of a squall line over east Texas Friday afternoon/evening along/ahead of the front.
This squall line should progress in tandem with the front, tracking through Louisiana and Mississippi overnight Friday/early Saturday, and Alabama and the Florida Panhandle Saturday afternoon/night.
Additionally, strong bulk wind shear values being advertised by model guidance suggests there will be potential for supercells ahead of the squall line.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has delineated a 30 percent risk for severe weather for both Friday and Saturday (see figure 1 and figure 2).
As of now, all modes of severe weather (tornadoes, damaging wind gusts, and large hail) look to be possible.
Exact details will come into better focus tomorrow and Thursday.
