A weak area of low pressure, currently positioned near the Rio Grande Valley/lower Texas coast, will translate northeast over the next day or two, and reach northern Alabama late tomorrow/Friday.
This low will bring heavy rain and the potential for flash flooding from the lower Mississippi Valley into the Tennessee Valley.
It appears the axis of heaviest rain will now set up from southwest Louisiana, through central/north Mississippi, and into northwest/north Alabama, where 2 – 5″ of rain is forecast (see figure 2).
Severe weather is also going to be a possibility.
The Storm Prediction Center has outlined a level 1 (marginal) risk area and level 2 (slight) risk area for tomorrow (see figure 1), and a level 1 risk area for Friday (see figure 3).
Instability is predicted to be low, which should keep the overall severe threat limited. Localized damaging wind gusts will be the main threat. However, a tornado or two can’t be ruled out.
