Severe Weather Still a Possibility This Afternoon and Overnight

Figure 1. HRRR simulated radar loop for 3 PM CST this afternoon to 8 PM CST this evening. The first timestamp is valid at 4 PM, the second 6 PM, and the third 8 PM. Source: Pivotal Weather
Figure 1. HRRR simulated radar loop for 3 PM CST this afternoon to 8 PM CST this evening. The first frame is valid at 3 PM, the second 6 PM, and the third 7 PM. Source: Pivotal Weather

Strong to severe storms remain a possibility across east Texas, much of Louisiana and Mississippi, and parts of western and northern Alabama this afternoon and overnight tonight.

Based on the latest short-range high restitution model guidance, storms will initially develop over east Texas, northwest Louisiana, and southeast Arkansas later this afternoon (see figure 1), and then advance east into the overnight.

However, it is still expected that storms will decrease in intensity with eastward extent due to a drop in surface based CAPE (instability).

Figure 2. Latest severe weather outlook from the Storm Prediction Center valid through 6 AM CST tomorrow.

The greatest threat for severe weather will be in the slight (level 2 out of 5) risk area (see figure 2).

Damaging winds and isolated tornadoes continue to look like the primary threats, but some instances of large hail also appear to be a possibility now too.

Caleb Carmichael
Caleb Carmichael

Caleb is the owner of Gulf Coast Storm Center. He is currently an undergraduate student at Mississippi State University majoring in geoscience with a concentration in broadcast and operational meteorology. While not yet a meteorologist, Caleb has been providing weather updates, news, and analysis for the Gulf Coast since 2014.

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