Tropical Update: Broad Low in Northwest Caribbean Unlikely to Develop

Figure 1. Five-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center for as of 8 AM EDT October 3, 2019.
Figure 1. Five-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook from the National Hurricane Center for as of 8 AM EDT October 3, 2019.

A broad area of low pressure in the northwest Caribbean Sea still has a chance, albeit low, for tropical development.

Strong upper-level winds (wind shear) continue to hinder any organization.

There is still a possibility that conditions could become more favorable for tropical development in the southwest Gulf of Mexico by early next week.

However, model support for development has decreased since Tuesday’s tropical update; both the ECMWF and UKMET are no longer predicting any development, and support from the EPS (ECMWF ensembles) has gone down.

Overall, tropical cyclone formation remains unlikely.

In their 8 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center placed the 5-day development chance at 20 percent.

Caleb Carmichael
Caleb Carmichael

Caleb is the owner of Gulf Coast Storm Center. He is currently an undergraduate student at Mississippi State University majoring in geoscience with a concentration in broadcast and operational meteorology. While not yet a meteorologist, Caleb has been providing weather updates, news, and analysis for the Gulf Coast since 2014.

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