Despite decreasing wind shear, Karen has yet to strengthen; in fact, based on data from a recon aircraft, Karen has actually weakened (again).
As of 5 PM EDT/AST, Karen had sustained winds of 40 mph, a minimum pressure of 1003 mb, and was moving north at 15 mph.
Forecast for Karen
It is not clear why Karen has not strengthened as forecast, and there is still a considerable amount of uncertainty with regard to the intensity forecast for Karen.
At this time, at least some intensification is still expected over the next day or two, as wind shear will remain low; however, it is now most likely Karen will remain weak, as suggested by much of the global model guidance.
Karen should be pushed back west/west-southwest this weekend as a ridge (high pressure) builds across the eastern U.S. and western Atlantic.
While the bend back west/west-southwest is concerning, wind shear is forecast to increase early next week (see figure 2); this, combined with dry air, could cause Karen to dissipate.
It is also possible that dry air could cause Karen to dissipate as early as this weekend.
With that being said, Florida, the U.S. east coast, and Bahamas should continue to monitor the progress of Karen.
