Tropical Storm Karen (formerly Invest 99-L) has formed east of the Windward Islands.
As of 5 AM EDT/AST, Karen had sustained winds of 40 mph, a minimum pressure of 1005 mb, and was moving west-northwest at 9 mph.
Forecast for Karen
Little change in strength is expected over the next day or two due to high wind shear.
However, a decrease in shear is forecast by Tuesday/Wednesday, which should allow for some intensification.
Karen will lift north out of the Caribbean Tuesday, directly impacting Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and the northern Lesser Antilles (see figure 1).
Toward mid to late week, a ridge is likely to build across the eastern U.S. and to the north of Karen (see figure 2); this should cause a substantial decrease in forward speed and/or stall, and possibly a bend back to the west or west-southwest.
With the potential for for a bend back to the west or west-southwest, the Bahamas, Florida and U.S. East Coast will need to monitor the progress of Karen closely.
Tropical Storm Jerry
Jerry is now a tropical storm.
As of 5 AM EDT/AST, Jerry had sustained winds of 65 mph, a minimum pressure of 1002 mb, and was moving north-northwest at 12 mph.
Jerry could re-strengthen a bit more over the next day or two, but is on track to go out to sea, possibly grazing Bermuda Tuesday.
Invest 90-L
A strong tropical wave (Invest 90-L) about to emerge off Africa is likely to develop within the next day two.
The ECMWF, GFS and UKMET were all predicting formation of a tropical cyclone by Monday as of the 00z model cycle.
In their 8 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, the National Hurricane Center put both the 2-day development chance and 5-day development chance at 90 percent.
Model guidance is in excellent agreement on 90-L becoming a hurricane, as well as it tacking a track out to sea.
