Jerry has started to weaken.
As of 5 PM EDT/AST, Jerry had sustained winds of 80 mph, a minimum pressure of 991 mb, and was moving west-northwest at 18 mph.
Forecast for Jerry
Jerry is likely to continue to weaken over the next day or or two. Re-intensification remains possible early next week.
There have been no changes with regard to track; a turn north, and then northeast, is anticipated by Sunday/Monday (see figure 1).
Invest 99-L
The tropical wave in the Main Development Region (MDR) has been tagged Invest 99-L by the National Hurricane Center (NHC).
Invest 99-L does have an opportunity to develop this weekend. However, wind shear is likely to increase by Monday, when 99-L will be moving into the east Caribbean.
As of the 12z model cycle, the GFS was still predicting some development (see figure 3); both the ECMWF and UKMET were also back to showing development, albeit limited.
In their 2 PM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, the NHC bumped the 5-day formation chance up to 40 percent.
If a tropical cyclone (TC) does form, it should follow Jerry out to sea, and remain rather weak.
Elsewhere in the Atlantic
The tropical wave that has yet to exit Africa is still looking like one to really watch.
Model guidance is aggressive with development, and the ECMWF (see figure 4) and GFS both still show it becoming a hurricane over the MDR.
In their 2 PM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, the NHC increased the 5-day development chance to 70 percent.
Early indications are that this wave will also take a track out into the open Atlantic as well, but this is not set in stone.
The tropical wave in the Caribbean is still… there.
Development remains unlikely. However, it is predicted to end up in the Gulf early next week, and therefore is still worth monitoring.
