The Atlantic is very, very active, with three active cyclones: Humberto, Imelda, and Jerry. In addition, there are two disturbances being monitored for possible development.
Humberto
As of 8 PM CDT, Humberto had maximum sustained winds of 120 mph, a minimum central pressure of 952 mb, and was moving east-northeast at 20 mph.
Weakening will begin within the next 12 – 36 hours, with transition to an extratropical (non-tropical) cyclone expected late this week over the open north Atlantic.
Imelda
Imelda weakened to a tropical depression after landfall near Freeport, Texas Tuesday afternoon almost as quickly as it spun up, and is now well inland of southeast Texas.
Heavy rain, and the risk for significant, life-threatening flash flooding, will continue across southeast Texas through Thursday (see figure 1), but should diminish by Thursday night/Friday.
Jerry
Tropical Depression Ten, which formed Tuesday morning, became a tropical storm Tuesday night, acquiring the name Jerry.
Jerry has strengthened today, with deep convection firing/maintaining near the center, and microwave data showing a tightly wrapped band near the center.
As of 8 PM EDT/AST, maximum sustained winds were 60 mph, the minimum central pressure was 1000 mb, and movement was west-northwest at 15 mph.
Given Jerry will be in a low shear environment for the next day or so, strengthening is likely in the short-term, and the official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is calling for a category 1.
However, an increase in shear should result in some weakening by Friday/Saturday.
At this time, Jerry is still expected to stay north of the Caribbean, and curve away from the United States (see figure 2).
Disturbances
Of the two disturbances (see figure ), the one in the Main Development Region has the best shot at developing this weekend/early next week.
In their 8 PM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, the NHC put the chance of development at 30 percent over the next 5 days.
As of the 12z model cycle, both the GFS and UKMET were predicting development, while the ECMWF was not.
If something does develop, it likely won’t be a concern for the U.S. per the most recent model guidance.
The other disturbance, located in the east Caribbean, has a 10 percent chance of development and is not likely to amount to much.
