Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (PTC 9) is still lacking a well-defined center of circulation this morning.
8 AM EDT advisory info
As of 8 AM EDT, PTC 9 had maximum sustained winds of 30 mph, a pressure of 1009 millibars, and was moving northwest at 5 mph.
Track
PTC 9 should continue on a northwest trajectory over the next 24 – 48 hours. A turn to the north is then expected Sunday, with a bend back to the northeast/east early next week.
It is now uncertain if PTC 9 will move over the Florida peninsula.
The GFS, while no longer predicting a track into the Gulf, is maintaining a more west solution, showing a Florida landfall Saturday.
Meanwhile, the ECMWF (see figure 2) and UKMET both keep the center offshore.
At this time, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is splitting the difference, calling for PTC 9 to get very close to the east coast of Florida, but not make landfall (see figure 1).
Intensity
Wind shear has lowered over/around PTC 9, and should continue to do so over the next day or two, which should allow for PTC 9 to: become a tropical storm; strengthen.
However, how much PTC 9 is able to intensify is in question. If there is interaction with the Florida peninsula, PTC 9 will probably only manage to become a weak to moderate tropical storm.
Conversely, if PTC 9 remains offshore, intensification into a high-end tropical storm or hurricane would be a real possibility.
Impacts
Aside from possible heavy rain/gusty winds, it is hard to say with much specificity what impacts PTC 9 might have on Florida or the Southeast U.S. coast Given the uncertainty regarding track/intensity.
Advisory summary
- A tropical storm watch is in effect from Jupiter Inlet, FL to the Flagler-Volusia County Line (see figure 1).
