We continue to monitor possible development in the Gulf of Mexico, as well as Invest 94L. There is also a new tropical wave to keep an eye on.
Invest 94L
At this point, it is looking like 94L probably amount to much.
There is still no model support. Furthermore, it now appears that environmental conditions will become unfavorable for development in about 36 – 48 hours.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has continued to lower the 5-day development chance, which was at 30 percent as of their 8 PM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook.
Possible Gulf development
A trough of low pressure now located north of Hispaniola still has a chance to develop in the Gulf late this week/this weekend, when environmental conditions could become more conducive.
Right now, the chance of development is low – 20 percent according to the NHC.
However, it is worth noting that there is support for some weak development from the ECMWF, GFS, UKMET, and ECMWF ensembles (EPS) as of the 12z model cycle.
If a tropical cyclone (TC) does form, it is too early to speculate on track/intensity.
New tropical wave
The new tropical wave now being monitored, which just emerged off Africa, probably has the best chance of becoming the next Atlantic TC.
Model support for development is strong, with the ECMWF, GFS and UKMET all predicting TC genesis by this weekend/early next week. Additionally, EPS probabilities of a tropical depression forming are up to 60 to 70 percent for this weekend/early next week.
Currently this wave only has a 20 percent chance of developing per the NHC, but this will change if model guidance remains consistent.
Should this wave become a TC, it is too early to say for certain if it would be a concern for the Caribbean or mainland United States; although, anomalous ridging (high pressure) is expected to be in place across the west Atlantic/eastern U.S. (see figure 3), meaning a more west track would be possible.
