Dorian is nearly stationary over Grand Bahama Island.
As of the 9 AM EDT intermediate advisory, Dorian had maximum sustained winds of 165 mph, a minimum central pressure of 916 millibars and was moving west at 1 mph.
Track
Dorian will continue to remain nearly stationary through tonight/early Tuesday, before eventually turning to the northwest and then north Tuesday afternoon/evening.
The center of Dorian is still expected to pass within 40 – 50 miles of Florida’s east coast.
Between Wednesday and Friday, Dorian will pass very near Georgia, South Carolina and North Carolina, and a landfall can’t be ruled out.
Intensity
While there has been some slight weakening (winds down to 165 mph from 185 mph), Dorian remains an extremely powerful category 5 hurricane.
An eye wall replacement cycle caused the weakening, but also resulted in an expansion of the wind field.
A very, very gradual weakening trend is expected through next day or two, followed by a more notable decrease in intensity by day 3 and 4, with Dorian now forecast to weaken to a category 2 storm by late Thursday/early Friday.
Impacts
Even though Dorian is not expected to make landfall in Florida, on the current forecast track, hurricane-force winds (see figure 1), a life-threatening storm surge of at at least 2 – 7′ and heavy rains are expected along much of the Florida east coast.
Heavy rains, high winds and surge are also expected for GA, SC and NC.
Timing
Tropical-storm-force winds will likely arrive in southeast Florida this evening (see figure 3).
Hurricane-force winds likely to arrive overnight/early Tuesday. These impacts will then spread north through Wednesday.
Note:
* Only a slight deviation to the west of the current forecast track would result in the center of Dorian moving very near or over Florida’s east coast, which would significantly increase impacts.
* Heavy rain, high winds and surge are expected for GA, SC and NC regardless of landfall.
