It is almost certain that 92L will become “Barry” later today or tomorrow.
Latest from the National Hurricane Center
The chance of development is now up to 90 percent for both the next 2 days and 5 days.
In their 8 AM EDT Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO), the National Hurricane Center (NHC) noted that environmental conditions are “conducive” for development of 92L, and that a tropical depression is “expected to form” late today or tomorrow.
Analysis
92L is producing a large area of disorganized convective activity.
However, there is no evidence of a well defined low-level circulation.
The lower and mid-level areas of vorticity do appear to be more aligned this morning, but still decoupled.
Model guidance
There have been no major changes since yesterday. The ECMWF, UKMET and GFS all continue to predict formation of a tropical depression or storm by tomorrow.
Track
While there is still some spread, and it is too early to pin down an exact landfall location, model guidance guidance has locked on to a landfall between Houston, TX and roughly Morgan City, LA on Saturday (see figure 2).
The GFS is the most eastern solution, predicting landfall just west of Morgan City, and a continued northward track into Louisiana after.
The UKMET is the western most solution, predicting landfall between Houston and Beaumont, followed by a continued northwest track into Texas after.
The ECMWF is between the GFS and UKMET, predicting landfall near Lake Charles, with a continued north to northwest/north-northwest track after landfall.
The latest TVCN consensus model is essentially on top of the ECMWF track.
Intensity
There is a good chance that we could see Hurricane Barry.
The GFS continues to predict 92L will peak as a category 1 hurricane.
The ECMWF has trended a bit stronger with the 00z model cycle, predicting 92L to become a high end category 1 or a category 2 (see figure 1).
The UKMET was still predicting a major hurricane as of its 00z run, with the HWRF (a model only for hurricanes that started running on 92L yesterday) predicting a similar outcome.
However, the latest IVCN consensus model is less aggressive, favoring a high end tropical storm.
Impacts
While ultimate impacts will depend on how strong soon-to-be Barry becomes, one thing is certain: a lot of rain is going to fall along the northern Gulf Coast (see figure 3).
Rough seas and surf and a high rip current risk can also be expected, and will extend well to the east of the center.
If we get a strong tropical storm or hurricane, there will be wind/surge impacts.
In their 8 AM EDT TWO, the NHC noted “storm surge and tropical- storm- or hurricane-force winds” will be possible across portions of the Louisiana, Mississippi, and Upper Texas coasts later this week.
Water spouts/tornadoes will also be a concern within outer bands/squalls.
Hurricane hunters to investigate
The hurricane hunters are still scheduled to investigate 92L this afternoon.
Texas to Mississippi should continue to monitor 92L
Interests from the mid/upper Texas Gulf Coast to Mississippi should continue to monitor the progress of 92L.
Now is the time to prepare
If you live anywhere along the mid/upper Texas Gulf Coast to Mississippi, you should consider preparing for what could very possibly be a hurricane.
