Some strong/severe storms are likely for south Texas this afternoon and tonight.
Then, tomorrow, a few strong/severe storms will be possible farther east, across parts of Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.
This Afternoon and Tonight
The combination of a sagging frontal boundary and left over surface boundaries from previous storms this morning/early this afternoon will allow for new activity to develop by ~ 2 or 3 PM. Overnight, activity will shift east.
Multiple clusters could evolve. And with effective shear values generally around 40 – 50 kts, a few supercells can’t be ruled out.
With at least moderate instability expected, there will be a severe risk. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has hatched a level 2 (slight) risk for severe weather (see figure 2).
Hail and damaging wind gusts will be the primary threats. However, a couple of tornadoes can’t be ruled out.
Tomorrow
Widespread strong storms will likely be ongoing across portions of east Texas and Louisiana tomorrow morning.
This activity will shift into Mississippi and southeast Louisiana between ~ 2 – 4 PM. Storms will then push into Alabama and the western Florida Panhandle between~ 4 – 8 PM.
Daytime heating could also fuel more convective activity ahead of the main mass of rain/thunderstorms. A few line segments/clusters could also occur.
Instability and shear will once again be sufficient to support a few strong/severe storms. However, the threat should decrease by the evening hours with diurnal stabilization.
The SPC has once again highlighted a standard level 2 (slight) risk area (see figure 3).
The main threats will continue to be damaging/strong wind gusts and hail. A brief, isolated tornado or two is also within the realm of possibility.
