Another Severe Weather Threat Looms Mid to Late Week

Figure 1. GFS predicted 500 mb height, vorticity and wind for 7 AM CDT Thursday, showing the upper-level trough pivoting into the Mississippi Valley. Image: Tropical Tidbits

Model guidance is depicting a strong upper-level trough to move out of the Rockies and into the Plains on Wednesday, the Mississippi Valley Thursday, and into the Eastern U.S. Friday – Saturday.

At the surface, the trough will be accompanied by a deepening surface low and frontal system.

It is looking like this storm system will bring another episode of severe weather.

The latest analog guidance is signaling a notable threat for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

Figure 2. Severe weather outlook for Wednesday. Image: NOAA SPC

Both a 30% (enhanced) and 15% (slight) risk area have already been highlighted for Wednesday, with a large 15% risk area both Thursday and Friday.

But, since we are 3 – 4 days out, placement of the greatest threat, timing, the primary hazard(s) and magnitude are not known.

This is something we will continue to monitor going into the work week.