Another Severe Weather Threat Looms Mid to Late Week

Figure 1. GFS predicted 500 mb height, vorticity and wind for 7 AM CDT Thursday, showing the upper-level trough pivoting into the Mississippi Valley. Image: Tropical Tidbits
Figure 1. GFS predicted 500 mb height, vorticity and wind for 7 AM CDT Thursday, showing the upper-level trough pivoting into the Mississippi Valley. Image: Tropical Tidbits

Model guidance is depicting a strong upper-level trough to move out of the Rockies and into the Plains on Wednesday, the Mississippi Valley Thursday, and into the Eastern U.S. Friday – Saturday.

At the surface, the trough will be accompanied by a deepening surface low and frontal system.

It is looking like this storm system will bring another episode of severe weather.

The latest analog guidance is signaling a notable threat for Wednesday, Thursday and Friday.

Figure 2. Severe weather outlook for Wednesday. Image: NOAA SPC

Both a 30% (enhanced) and 15% (slight) risk area have already been highlighted for Wednesday, with a large 15% risk area both Thursday and Friday.

But, since we are 3 – 4 days out, placement of the greatest threat, timing, the primary hazard(s) and magnitude are not known.

This is something we will continue to monitor going into the work week.

Caleb Carmichael
Caleb Carmichael

Caleb is the owner of Gulf Coast Storm Center. He is currently an undergraduate student at Mississippi State University majoring in geoscience with a concentration in broadcast and operational meteorology. While not yet a meteorologist, Caleb has been providing weather updates, news, and analysis for the Gulf Coast since 2014.

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