A late season nor’easter is likely to impact parts of the East Coast Tuesday and Wednesday.
Model guidance is indicating that an of low pressure is going to form either over the Southeast or northeast Gulf of Mexico late tomorrow.
By early Tuesday, the low will be located off of the coast of the Southeast, where it will likely begin to deepen before tracking northeast.
However, after this point, things becomes less certain.
The GFS/GEFS favor a track well offshore. Meanwhile, the ECMWF/EPS favor a track closer to the coast (see figure 1).
Track will ultimately determine impacts.
A track near the coast would mean heavy rain, strong winds, rough seas/surf, and coastal flooding/beach erosion for parts of the East Coast.
Conversely, a track well offshore would result in minimal issues aside from rough surf and a rip current risk.
