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Severe Threat for Southern Plains and Mississippi Valley Midweek

Figure 1. CIPS analog-based severe probability guidance for Wednesday / Credit: Cooperative Institute for Precipitation Systems and Saint Louis University

An active weather pattern is going to continue this week.

From Tuesday night to Wednesday a strong cyclone is expected to develop in the Plains. This system while take a track similar to the previous one, significantly deepening as it does so.

We sound like a broken record. But there will be potential for more strong to severe storms ahead of a trailing front Tuesday into Wednesday.


This time it looks like the greater threat will be from the Southern Plains into the Mississippi Valley.

The Storm Prediction Center has defined a standard level 2 (slight) risk area for Tuesday. Note that the risk area is highly subject to change in subsequent updates.

We will likely see a zone highlighted for Wednesday, as CIPS analog-based severe probability guidance indicates a continued threat for severe weather (see figure 1).

Parameters (Severe Weather “Ingredients”)

Model guidance is depicting high shear values. However, CAPE/instability once again looks questionable.

Timing and Threats

It is too early to speculate on details. Although, it does like we could be looking at a MCS/squall line Tuesday night and Wednesday. This suggests a risk for damaging winds and some tornado threat.

Low-End Risk for Southeast Thursday?

At least a marginal risk could carry over into Thursday for the Southeast. General thunderstorms seem most likely as of now though.

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