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Tornado Threat has Increased for Today

There have been some changes with what is expected in regard to the severe weather threat later today.

Initially we were expecting the main convective mode to be linear with damaging winds and an isolated tornado or two being the main concern. However, at least a few discrete supercells could now form ahead of the main convective line.

This means:

1) Tornadoes are more likely.

2) All modes of severe weather are now possible, including damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph.

Looking at the latest outlook from the Storm Prediction Center (SPC),  south Alabama and southwest Georgia have been upgraded to a level 3 (out of 5) enhanced risk for severe storms.

This area is has the greatest risk of seeing tornadoes — and severe storms in general — and where there is potential for strong tornadoes per the SPC. Timing looks to be late morning (10 or 11 AM CST) through the evening hours.

We also note that high resolution model guidance now indicates that the squall line will hold together for a few hours after sunset.

The severe threat will end from west to east with the passage of the front.

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