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A few Strong to Severe Storms Likely Sunday

NAM simulated radar valid at 3 PM CST Sunday.

An area of low pressure and strong arctic front are going to transport warm, moist air from the Gulf into the Southeast Sunday.

A squall line is expected to develop ahead of the front Sunday morning/early afternoon, over the lower Mississippi Valley. It will track east with the front during the remainder of the day into the overnight hours.

Moderate CAPE (instability) and shear will be supportive of some strong to severe storms.

The Storm Prediction Center has hatched a level 1 out of 2 slight risk area for east Louisiana, central and south Mississippi and Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle. A level 1 marginal risk area has also been defined. Areas impacted by severe weather just last weekend are included in the risk zone.

But we want to stress that this setup is very different from last weekend.  The main convective mode is still likely to be linear, not cellular, meaning the primary threat will be straight-line winds.  However, the tornado threat won’t be zero.

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