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Turning Colder to End January?

cpc temp outlook 1 5 19.gif
Figure 1. Temperature outlook from the Climate Prediction Center for January 19th – February 1st.

Teleconnections are going to favor generally above normal to normal temperatures across much of the lower 48 for the next 1 – 2 weeks. A few shot of cold air or two is certainly possible, though.

However, as we head toward the latter half of the month, substantial changes appear possible.

A split/displacement of the polar vortex could cause a switch to a much colder and stormy pattern.

Both the CFS and ECMWF EPS weeklies were in agreement on below-average temperatures for the last few days of January going into February (in their most recent runs). This agreement increases confidence in a cold and stormy pattern evolving in the 3 – 4 week period.

But, it should be noted that there is still uncertainty, as this is at least 3 weeks away.

The main takeaway here is below-average temperatures and above-average precipitation are very possible at the end the month going into February.


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