An impactful storm system is now likely to close out the week; it will bring heavy rain and the potential for strong/severe storms from Texas to the Florida Panhandle Friday through Saturday.
On Friday, a surface low is expected to develop along the Western Gulf Coast. This will be in response to a shortwave embedded in the subtropical jet stream. This low will track east, generally along the northern Gulf Coast, late Friday through Saturday.
Heavy rain is a certainty, as deep gulf moisture will be pulled north. Rainfall accumulations of 2 – 5″ are likely for much of East and Central Texas into Louisiana. Meanwhile, general accumulations of 1 – 3″ will be possible elsewhere.
There will be a low-end severe weather threat both Friday and Saturday, mainly along/south of I-10. Surface-based CAPE (instability) values look to remain limited. However, there will be sufficient shear to work with.
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has defined a “marginal” risk area for Friday (see figure 2).
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