Impactful Storm System now Likely to Close out the Week

Impactful Storm System now Likely to Close out the Week

Figure 1. GFS showing the position of the low Saturday morning | Map credit: Pivotal Weather

An impactful storm system is now likely to close out the week; it will bring heavy rain and the potential for strong/severe storms from Texas to the Florida Panhandle Friday through Saturday.

On Friday, a surface low is expected to develop along the Western Gulf Coast. This will be in response to a shortwave embedded in the subtropical jet stream. This low will track east, generally along the northern Gulf Coast, late Friday through Saturday.

Heavy rain: 

Heavy rain is a certainty, as deep gulf moisture will be pulled north. Rainfall accumulations of 2 – 5″ are likely for much of East and Central Texas into Louisiana. Meanwhile, general accumulations of  1 – 3″ will be possible elsewhere.

Severe threat: 

There will be a low-end severe weather threat both Friday and Saturday, mainly along/south of I-10. Surface-based CAPE (instability) values look to remain limited. However, there will be sufficient shear to work with.

Figure 2. SPC severe weather outlook for Friday.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has defined a “marginal” risk area for Friday (see figure 2).

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