It is looking like an impactful storm system is going to move through late this week.
Model guidance has been advertising a surface low to develop in Texas/the NW Gulf Friday along a cold front in association with a shortwave embedded in the subtropical jet stream. From there, guidance has been projecting the low to head east/east-northeast late Friday through Sunday. However, the exact track is uncertain. Both the GFS and ECMWF have been wavering back and forth.
Currently, a track along the northern Gulf Coast is favored (see figure 1). A slightly more northern track can’t yet be ruled out, though.
The more southerly track would result in heavy rain and possibly some strong storms from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. On the other hand, a more northerly track could result in a greater severe weather threat.
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