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Threat for Severe Weather From Texas to the Lower MS River Valley Today Through Tomorrow

Figure 1. HRRR simulated radar valid at 1:00 AM CDT tonight (Thursday morning).

A severe weather event is likely to unfold from Texas into the lower Mississippi River Valley through tomorrow.

Today and tonight: 

A cold front is currently positioned across North Texas per the latest surface analysis. This front is going to shift south and east over the next 24 – 48 hours. Moist, unstable air ahead of the front will trigger storm development late this morning and this afternoon.  Storms that develop will congeal into a squall line by this evening. The squall will move in tandem with the front.

Figure 2. Severe weather outlook for today/tonight.

Currently, the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has highlighted an “enhanced” risk for Southeast Texas, much of Louisiana, and far West Mississippi (see figure 2).

Damaging, straight-line winds and heavy rain will be the primary threats. However, large hail will also be possible. Shear is expected to increase tonight. As a result, there will be a tornado risk with cells ahead of the front, as well as with those embedded in the line.


The front and squall line will continue to advance east, meaning the severe threat will shift into Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.

Figure 3. Severe weather outlook for tomorrow.

Straight-line winds and heavy rain will continue to be the main threats. A few isolated tornadoes and some instances of hail can’t be entirely ruled out, though. The latest outlook from the SPC has maintained the “slight” risk area for the north-central Gulf Coast region (see figure 3). This is where higher instability will be located.

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