The first threat of the fall severe weather season is upon us.
An upper-level trough is going to push a cold front across the Gulf Coast region tomorrow and Thursday. A linear complex of storms is going to develop in E Texas along/ahead of the front by tomorrow evening; it will move in tandem with the front. Overnight tomorrow and into Thursday, the line will progress into the Mississippi River Valley.
There will be potential for severe with this line. However, severe potential will be greater closer to the coast, where instability is going to be the highest. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has hatched an “enhanced” risk area for SE Texas and parts of W Louisiana tomorrow (see figure 1).
Parts of the north-central Gulf Coast have also been included in a “slight” risk area Thursday (see figure 2).
Currently, it looks like damaging winds will be the primary threat. However, other modes of severe weather (hail and a tornado or two) can’t be ruled out with any discrete storms that may form. Heavy rain will also be a concern, with most seeing accumulations of 1 – 3″.
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