Tropical Update | Caribbean Disturbance a Threat to Develop in the Gulf of Mexico

Figure 1. IR satellite image as from 14:30 UTC 9/10/18 showing the disturbed weather over the Caribbean | Credit: NASA

While we continue to monitor Florence and Isaac, an area of disturbed weather in the Northwest Caribbean warrants monitoring for development when it moves into the Gulf later this week.

Strong upper-level winds are currently hampering any organization. However, upper-level winds are expected to relax when this disturbance is over the West/Central Gulf mid to late week, which could allow for development.

The 00z runs ofboth the ECMWF and UKMET developed this area of disturbed weather; the GFS did not. The 00z ECMWF ensembles (EPS) also indicated a 70% chance of at least a tropical depression forming over the Western Gulf by Wednesday.

In their 8 AM EDT tropical weather outlook, the National Hurricane Center placed the chance of formation at 40% (medium) over the next 5 days.

Figure 2. 7-day QPF outlook from the Weather Prediction Center | Credit: Pivotal Weather

At this time, it is too early to ascertain specifics ( potential track, intensity, etc…) as it is not certain if we will even get development. There will be heavy rainfall along the Western Gulf Coast regardless of development (see figure 2).

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