Tropics Quiet; Could Become Active Towards The End of The Month

Figure 1. MJO forecast for the next 2 weeks.

After Beryl — a rare Main Development Region (MDR) July hurricane — and Hurricane Chris, the Atlantic basin is once again quiet in regard to tropical activity.

This quiet period will likely persist for the next 7 – 10 days. Though, there are signs that we could see an uptick in activity towards the last few days of the month heading into August. A convective coupled Kelvin wave (CCKW) is forecast to push across the Atlantic around the 26th.

After the CCKW passage, the upward phase of the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is set to move through the Atlantic, and remain in place for the start of the peak of the season (see figure 1).

The CCKW and MJO, in addition to climatology, could mean that the end of this month through at least the first half of August could be very active across the Atlantic.

However, this is not set in stone, and at this point is just something to keep an eye on over the next week or so.

Image credit: [ Michael Ventrice ]


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