Subtropical Storm Alberto formed over the Northwest Caribbean today, and will impact the Northern Gulf Coast late this weekend into early next week.
Both a tropical storm watch and storm watch and storm surge watch have been posted for coastal Southeast LA, coastal MS, coastal AL, and the Western Florida Panhandle coast (see figure 2).
Track: Alberto will lift north-northeast into the southern Gulf tomorrow, and then move generally north into the east-central Gulf Sunday, and northwest or north-northwest towards the north-central Gulf Coast on Monday/Tuesday.
Landfall still looks to occur between new Orleans and Panama City.
Intensity: Currently Alberto is disorganized, with most of the thunderstorm activity displaced to the east of the center, as it is still being impacted by shear. However, overall environmental conditions are expected to become more conducive for organization/intensification as Alberto traverses the Gulf of Mexico.
The current forecast from the National Hurricane Center calls for Alberto to have maximum sustained winds of 65 mph at landfall Monday — just below hurricane intensity. It is possible Alberto could become a low-end category 1 hurricane on approach to the coast, as sea surface temperatures are anomalously warm near the north-central Gulf Coast; though, dry air could ultimately prevent this.
A transition from a subtropical cyclone to a tropical cyclone is expected Sunday or Monday.
Impacts:
The expectant impacts remain the same: heavy rain and flash flooding, coastal flooding, rough surf, rip currents, gusty winds, and severe weather (potential for tornadoes).
Impacts will be felt as early as tomorrow night along the Northern Gulf Coast, as surf will begin to become increasingly rough. Tropical storm conditions could arrive as early Sunday morning (in the tropical storm watch area) as outer bands/squalls being to move in (see figure 1).
Heavy rain/flash flood threat: Very heavy rainfall is likely from Southeast Louisiana to Florida through early next week. Up to 8 – 10″ of rain is forecast across South Mississippi, South Alabama, and the Western Florida Panhandle, resulting in a significant flood threat (see figure 3).
Coastal impacts: Surf will be rough, and there will be a high risk of rip currents. Wave heights of 12 – 24′ will be likely offshore. Some coastal flooding is also probable, with a storm surge of 2 – 4′ possible.
Wind: Tropical storm force winds are likely (in the tropical storm watch area). Though the extent of the wind impact will depend on how strong Alberto gets.
Severe weather: Isolated tornadoes will be possible in outer bands/squalls.
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