Risk for Severe Thunderstorms, Flash Flooding for Central, Northeast TX Tonight; South TX, Much of LA, West MS Tomorrow

The front associated with our upper-level storms system is draped across North Texas this evening; it will slowly slide into Central and South Texas tonight/early tomorrow,  Louisiana and West Mississippi late tomorrow, and the remainder of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle Thursday.

Both heavy rain and strong to severe thunderstorms are still expected along/ahead of the front.

Tonight

Strong thunderstorms — some potentially severe — will develop from the Brush Country into Northeast Texas and to congeal into a squall line.

Figure 2. Severe weather outlook for tonight.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has outlined a “slight risk” area. Damaging wind gusts and large hail remain the expectant primary threats.

Tomorrow

The squall line will still be impacting East Texas early tomorrow, and will progress into portions South Texas early tomorrow morning, and Louisiana and West Mississippi late tomorrow/early Thursday. Additional storms will likely develop over South Texas tomorrow night, and then push east.

Figure 3. Severe weather outlook for tomorrow.

Some embedded severe thunderstorms will be possible. The SPC has hatched a “slight risk” area encompassing all of South Texas, much of Louisiana, and West-Central Mississippi.

Per the afternoon update from the SPC, an upgrade to higher risk (likely “enhanced”) is possible sometime tonight or tomorrow.

Damaging straight-line winds, hail, and isolated tornado or two still look to be the main threats as of now.

Thursday

Thunderstorms will overspread Southeast Louisiana, the remainder of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.

Some strong/severe thunderstorms will be possible.

Figure 4. Severe weather outlook for Thursday.

The SPC has defined a “slight risk” area, which is the area with the greatest potential for severe weather.

Damaging winds and a brief, isolated tornado or two appear to be the main threats. However, some small hail can’t be ruled out.

Heavy Rain

Not much has changed in regard to heavy rain and the possibility of flash flooding.

Figure 5. Latest 7-day QPF outlook.

Storms through Thursday will produce widespread heavy rain. Accumulations of 2 – 5″  are forecast from East Texas into Northwest Alabama, with accumulations up to 6″  or more possible locally.

Flash flooding will be possible — mainly across Northeast Texas, North Louisiana, North/Central Mississippi, and Northwest Alabama, where the highest rainfall totals are forecast.

Figure 6. Excessive rainfall outlook for tonight.

Flash Flood Watches are in effect for Northeast Texas and Northwest Louisiana, and a portion of Southeast Texas. It would not be surprising to see additional watches issued.

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