Severe Weather Threat This Weekend

There will be a threat for severe weather across East Texas, essentially all of Louisiana and Mississippi, areas of Southwest and Central Alabama, and all of Northern Alabama this weekend.

A storm system is going to eject out of the Southern Plains Saturday into Sunday, pulling a trailing cold front east.

During the day Saturday, a line of storms will evolve across East Texas along the aforementioned front; it will continue across Louisiana during the day Saturday in tandem with the front, and Mississippi and Alabama late Saturday into the first half of the day Sunday.

The line will likely move into the Western Florida Panhandle later during the day Sunday, but should be weakening as lift begins to decrease and the air becomes more stable.

Severe threat: Efficient CAPE (instability), lift, and wind shear from a strong low-level jet stream to allow some storms within the line to become severe.

Placement: The Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Northeast Texas, North Louisiana, North and Central Mississippi, and Northwest Alabama under a “slight” risk (2 out of 5 on a scale of 1 – 5) of severe weather Saturday/early Sunday.

Severe weather outlook for Saturday through early Sunday.
Another look at the severe weather outlook for Saturday through early Sunday.

The remainder of East Texas, most all of Louisiana and Mississippi, and sections of Southwest and Central Alabama, and the rest of North Alabama under a “marginal” risk (1 out of 5 on a scale of 1 – 5) for severe weather Saturday/early Sunday.

It is possible areas of these risk zones will be upgraded and shifted around some over the next day or two. Also, it would not be surprising to see a “marginal” risk for portions of Alabama and the Western Florida Panhandle for Sunday.

Primary threats: Damaging straight line winds, hail, and isolated tornadoes.

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