A Pattern Change on the Horizon?

Meteorological winter is just two days away, and fittingly, a change to a potentially stormy and cold(er) weather pattern is looking possible about 7 – 10 days from now.

Towards the end of next week (around December 7th-8th), most reliable model guidance is forecasting the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Arctic Oscillation (AO) to go negative, and the Pacific-North America Oscillation (PNA) to go into its positive phase.

Precipitation probability outlook from the Climate Prediction Center next week, showing above average precipitation is likely across much the Central part of the country and Eastern part of the country, signaling unsettled/stormy weather is likely.

If the aforementioned teleconnections line up as described above, a change to a unsettled and significantly colder weather pattern would occur across the Central and Eastern portions of the country. Timing wise, this would occur by the latter half of next week and into the second week of this upcoming month.

However, there is still some uncertainty. And it is too early to determine specifics (how cold it will get, if there will be any severe weather, how long the pattern will remain in place, etc…) — or if this pattern change will even come to fruition.

We will know more as we get closer to this weekend. There will be additional updates over the coming days.


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