The National Hurricane Center has upgraded Invest 96l to Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen (PTC-15).
Forecast Track (next 5 days): PTC-15 will track generally west to west-northwest over the next 5 days, and will likely track across parts of the Lesser Antilles early next week, and parts of the Greater Antilles late next week.
Intensity Forecast (next 5 days): PTC-15 is expected to become a tropical cyclone (likely Tropical Storm Maria) later today or tonight, and will gradually strengthen over the next 5 days, as environmental conditions will be conducive for intensification.
The official National Hurricane Center forecast calls for Irma to become a hurricane by Monday. However, they note that their intensity forecast is a conservative for the most part, and it is possible PTC-15 could become a hurricane as early as tomorrow.
Extended Range: looking out into the extended range, it appears likely that there will be a pattern in place in about 7 – 10 days that will favor ridging (high pressure) over the Eastern U.S., which could possibly prevent PTC-15 (likely Hurricane Maria by this time) from hooking northeast out to sea.
However, it is too early to know if PTC-15 will be a threat to the U.S. or not.
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