Tropical Update: July 19th, 2017

The tropics are quiet once again across the Atlantic.

Tropical Storm Don Dissipates; 96L Not a Threat

Tropical Storm Don degenerated into an open wave in the Southeastern Caribbean last night, after succumbing to unfavorable upper-level winds.

Meanwhile, development of invest 96L, which popped up behind Don on Monday, is unlikely due to it being located in a large, dry Saharan Air mass.

Busy Early August Likely

Things will likely remain quiet across the Atlantic, Caribbean, and Gulf of Mexico through the end of this month (which is normal from a climatological standpoint).

However, as we head into the first half of August, activity will likely start to pick up again. This is because the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is forecast to move into a favorable state for tropical development in Atlantic.

Chart depicting the annual tropical cyclone frequency in the Atlantic.

Furthermore, climatology dictates that things tropical activity in the Atlantic really begins to ramp up by the second week of August, which is when the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season begins.

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