Tropical Update: July 16th, 2017

A tropical wave located in the far Eastern Atlantic was designated invest 95-L by the National Hurricane Center this morning, and has some potential for development.

Analysis

As of Sunday evening, satellite images showed that invest 95-L was poorly organized, with some slight “spin” and a modest amount of convection; both of which can likely be attributed to dry Saharan Air to the north of the system.

Chance of Development

Other than the presence of dry air, conditions are conducive for gradual development of 95-L, and will remain conducive for the next two to three days. However by the middle of this week environmental conditions will become less conducive for development, making further development unlikely.

Latest 5 day tropical weather outlook from the National Hurricane Center.

In their 8:00pm CDT tropical weather outlook, the National Hurricane Center 95-L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next two days, and a 40% chance of developing into a tropical cyclone over the next five days.

Model Guidance

The GFS, UKMET, and some of the GFS ensembles forecast some development of 95-L over the next two to three days. On the other hand, the ECMWF and ECMWF ensembles do not forecast any development of 95-L over the next two to three days.

Track

Invest 95-L will be steered towards the west over the next 2 – 5 days by a ridge of high pressure, and will likely enter the Eastern Caribbean on Wednesday.

Latest track guidance for 95-L as of 00z July 17th.

However, it is important to note that unfavorable upper-level winds across the Eastern and Central Caribbean will cause anything that might develop from 95-L (Tropical Storm Don?) to dissipate.

NOTE: invest 95-L is not a threat to the U.S. at this time.

 

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