Invest 93-L Designated Potential Tropical Cyclone Three; Widespread Impacts Expected

Invest 93-L was designated Potential Tropical Cyclone Three (PTC Three) by the National Hurricane Center this afternoon, and is expected to bring impacts from Texas to the Florida Panhandle.

Latest Advisory

As of the 4pm CDT advisory, PTC Three was located over the Southern Gulf of Mexico, at 25.7 degrees north and 88.4 degrees west.

(figure 2) Latest information on PTC Three as of the 4pm CDT advisory.

Maximum sustained winds of 40mph, with a minimum central pressure of 1002 millibars.

Watches and Warnings

A tropical storm watch is in effect from Intercoastal City to High Island. A tropical storm warning is also in effect from Intercoastal City to the mouth of the Pearl River.

Track

There is still some uncertainty regarding the track Potential Tropical Cyclone Three will take, with the models still split into two camps: The ECMWF, UKMET and CMC, which take PTC Three into Southeast Texas; and the GFS and HWRF, which take PTC Three into Southeast Louisiana.

The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center (see figure 2) lies in between the two camps.

Intensity

Conditions are currently conductive enough for PTC Three to develop into a tropical cyclone.

The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center calls for PTC Three to become Tropical Storm Cindy 24 hours from now, peaking in intensity with 45mph winds.

Impacts

PTC Three is only expected to become a weak to moderate tropical storm, with heavy rain (potentially up to 12″ from Southeast Louisiana to the Western Florida Panhandle), gusty winds, coastal flooding, and rough surf being the primary hazards.

Expected impacts from PTC Three.

Additionally, it is important to understand that main impacts will be displaced well to the north and east of the center, from Southeast Louisiana to the Western Florida Panhandle.

Timing

Impacts from PTC Three will begin to be felt across parts of the Gulf Coast tomorrow, and will continue through Thursday.

Flash Flood Threat

The heavy rainfall that is expected to fall in association with PTC Three will create a threat for flash flooding.

As a result, flash flood watches are in place across much of the Central Gulf Coast, and parts of the Eastern Gulf Coast.

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Our next update will be tomorrow, with continuing updates on social media.

 

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