All remains calm across the Atlantic, with no tropical development expected over the next 5 – 7 days.
However, looking beyond the next 5 – 7 days, it still looks like there will be some potential for tropical development in the Northwest Caribbean and Southern Gulf of Mexico 7 – 10 days from now.
Pretty much all of the reliable global model guidance, including the GFS and ECMWF and their ensemble members, are hinting at some activity around the Yucatan Peninsula next weekend into early next week.
And as we stated yesterday – the MJO (Madden Julian Oscillation) is expected to be in a favorable state for tropical development in the Atlantic towards the middle and end of this month – which could increase development chances.
This potential is still nothing to be too concerned about, but it is something to monitor.
We will have another update out tomorrow.
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