Severe Weather, Heavy Rainfall Remains Likely This Weekend

A storm system is still expected to bring severe weather and heavy rainfall to much of the region this weekend.

Setup

A strong low pressure system will sweep across the Plains and Midwest tomorrow through Monday, bringing a trailing cold front across our region as it does so.

Storms will develop along and ahead of the front as it makes its way east, which will produce heavy rainfall, and likely some severe weather.

Severe Threat

Tomorrow

Severe weather will be likely across much of East Texas, West Louisiana, and West Mississippi.

Placement: The greatest threat for severe weather will be across parts of East Texas and West Louisiana, in the category 3 (“enhanced”) risk area.

Convective outlook for tomorrow.

However, severe weather will also be possible in the category 2 (“slight”) risk and category 1 (“marginal”) risk areas.

Timing: Storms will initiate across East Texas and West Louisiana during the afternoon hours, and push east into the evening and overnight hours.

Threats: All modes of severe weather (damaging winds, large hail, and tornadoes) will be threats.

Sunday

The severe weather threat will push into East Louisiana, much of Mississippi, and parts of Alabama and the Florida Panhandle.

Placement: The highest risk for severe weather will be across East Louisiana, much of Mississippi, and West Alabama, in the category 2 (“slight”) risk area.

Convective outlook for Sunday.

However, there will also be a lower risk for sever weather in the category 1 (“marginal”) risk area.

Timing: As of now, the time frame for storms appears to be the morning and afternoon hours across Western portions of the threat area, and the evening into overnight hours for Eastern portions of the threat area (possibly into Monday morning for the Florida Panhandle and East Alabama).

Threats: All modes of severe weather will be possible.

Heavy Rainfall

Heavy rainfall will be likely this weekend in addition to the severe weather threat.

The highest accumulations are currently forecast over Northeast Texas, Northern Louisiana, and Northwest Mississippi, where accumulations of 1 – 3″ are forecast (locally higher accumulations will be possible).

Forecast rainfall accumulations through Monday/early Tuesday.

Flooding will be a concern in flood prone areas, as well as areas that receive heavy rainfall accumulations in a short period of time.

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