A multi-day severe weather threat is expected to kick off today with a significant severe weather outbreak out across East Texas and much of Louisiana. The threat will then shift east, into Southeast Louisiana, East/Central Mississippi, much of Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.
Today
A significant severe weather outbreak is going to unfold across East Texas, much of Louisiana, and East/Central Mississippi.
Placement: The most significant threat for severe weather will be in the category 3 (“enhanced”) and category 4 (“moderate”) risk areas. However, some strong to severe storms will also be likely in the category 2 (“slight”) risk area. A few strong to severe storms will also be possible in the category 1 (“slight”) risk area.
Timing: Widespread, discrete thunderstorms, some being severe supercells, will develop throughout the day today across the threat area; especially during the afternoon hours. Then, during the late evening hours into tonight, a large squall line will develop across extreme East Texas and West Louisiana, and push across much of Louisiana and Western Mississippi overnight into early tomorrow.
Threats: All modes of severe weather (tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail) will be likely .The threat for swaths of damaging winds will likely be exceptionally high with the squall line. Additionally, a few strong, long-tracked tornadoes will be a threat in the category 3 (“enhanced”) and category 4 (“moderate”) risk areas, along with large hail.
In addition to the severe threat, heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding will also be a concern across all of Eastern Texas, all of Louisiana, and into Western Mississippi.
Tomorrow
The threat will shift into Southeast Louisiana, East/Central Mississippi, much of Alabama, and the Western Florida Panhandle on Monday. However, it likely won’t be quite as significant, but not nil.
Placement: The greatest threat for severe weather tomorrow will be in the category 3 (“enhanced”) rand category 2 (“slight”) risk areas.
However, severe weather will also be possible in the category 1 (“marginal”) risk area.
Timing: The aforementioned squall line will continue to push east tomorrow, and will be the feature that will bring the threat for severe weather. At this time it appears it will push across Southeast Louisiana, East/Central Mississippi, and Western Alabama during the morning hours, and across the remainder of Alabama and the Western Florida Panhandle late tomorrow morning and early tomorrow afternoon.
Threats: All modes of severe weather will be possible on Monday. However, damaging winds appear to be the main threat at this time, along with isolated tornadoes.
Heavy rainfall and flooding will also be a concern.
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