A significant severe weather event is going to unfold across Southeast Texas and West Louisiana tomorrow. The threat will then shift east, into Southeast Louisiana, West Mississippi, much of Alabama, and the Western Florida Panhandle on Monday.
Setup: A strong storm system is going to push across much of the South early tomorrow through Monday.
It will tap into deep gulf moisture as it does so, drawing it north, allowing widespread storms to develop across much of the region; and the necessary parameters will be in place to support them becoming strong to severe.
Today
Yesterday it looked like discrete storms, some of them potentially severe, would begin to develop across Southeast Texas late tonight into early tomorrow. This is no longer expected, however. Therefore, there is no severe weather threat across Southeast Texas today.
Tomorrow
The severe weather threat will begin tomorrow, across East Texas, much of Louisiana, and much of Mississippi.
Placement: The greatest threat for severe weather tomorrow will be in the category 3 (“enhanced”) and category 4 (“moderate”) risk areas. However, some strong to severe storms will also be likely in the category 2 (“slight”) risk area. A few strong to severe storms will also be possible in the category 1 (“slight”) risk area.
Timing: Widespread, discrete thunderstorms, some being severe supercells, are likely throughout the day tomorrow across the entire threat area; especially during the afternoon hours. And by tomorrow afternoon and tomorrow evening, a large squall line will develop across Central/East Texas, and push into, and across, Louisiana and Western Mississippi tomorrow night into early Monday.
Threats: All modes of severe weather (tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail) will be likely on tomorrow. The threat for swaths of damaging winds will likely be exceptionally high with the squall line. Additionally, a few strong, long-tracked tornadoes will be a threat in the category 3 (“enhanced”) and category 4 (“moderate”) risk areas.
Heavy rainfall and flooding will also be a concern across all of Eastern Texas, all of Louisiana, and into Western Mississippi.
Monday
The threat will shift into Southeast Louisiana, East/Central Mississippi, much of Alabama, and the Western Florida Panhandle on Monday. However, it likely won’t be quite as significant.
Placement: The greatest threat for severe weather on Monday will be in the category 2 (“slight”) risk area.
However, severe weather will also be possible in the category 1 (“marginal”) risk area.
Timing: The aforementioned squall line will continue to push east Monday, and will be the feature that will bring the severe weather threat. At this time it appears it will push across Southeast Louisiana, much of Mississippi, and Western Alabama during the morning hours, and across the remainder of Alabama and the Western Florida Panhandle early Monday afternoon.
However, there could be some changes with the timing before Monday depending on the evolution of the squall line tomorrow afternoon and night.
Threats: All modes of severe weather will be possible on Monday. However, damaging winds appear to be the main threat at this time, along with isolated tornadoes.
Heavy rainfall and flooding will also be a concern.
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