Category 3 Risk For Severe Storms Today; Another Severe Threat Still Expected Late This Weekend, Early Next Week

UPDATE: The category 3 (“enhanced”) risk area has been downgraded to a category 2 (“slight”) risk.

There is a category 3 (“enhanced”) risk and category 2 (“slight”) risk for severe storms across parts of the region today. Also, another severe threat is still expected across much of the region late this weekend into early next week.

Today

Placement: The Storm Prediction Center has removed the category 4 (“moderate”) risk for severe weather today.

The greatest threat for severe storms today will be across Northern Mississippi and Northwest Alabama, in the category 3 (“enhanced”) risk area.

Convective outlook for today.

However, there will also be a threat for severe weather in the category 2 (“slight”) risk area.

Timing: Storms are expected to develop across Western portions of the threat area this afternoon, and push across the remainder of the threat area into the evening hours.

Threats: All modes of severe weather (tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail) will be threats today.Heavy rainfall is the primary concern, however.

This Weekend and Early Next Week

Another storm system is going to develop and sweep across much of the South from Sunday through Monday; and it is still expected to bring the threat for severe weather back to much of the region.

GFS mslp and precip forecast valid next Monday.

Potential placement: The Storm Prediction Center has maintained the hatched 15 risk area (equivalent to a category 2 (“slight”) risk of severer weather) across parts of East Texas, much of Louisiana, and Western Mississippi on Sunday.

They still have not yet hatched an area for Monday. However, they will likely do so within the next day or two, and it will likely encompass much of Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.

Potential threats and timing: While it is likely that there will be a severe weather threat across much of the region on Sunday and Monday, it is still too early to pin down timing timing, what threats are likely, and the overall magnitude of the threat.

Although, we can say that it looks like it could be rather significant.

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