Severe potential today: There is still a threat for strong to severe storms across East Texas and West Louisiana this evening and overnight tonight, with the greatest threat for severe storms being over East Texas, where the SPC has placed a “slight” risk for severe storms. There is still a lower threat for severe storms across the Central Gulf Coast today as well.
Setup: Supercells thunderstorms and some bowing line segments are likely tonight.
Threats (TX/LA): All modes of severe weather (hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes) will be possible. Ultimately, the storms that develop over Texas and Louisiana tonight will congeal into a large complex of storms, that will push east across the Central Gulf Coast tomorrow.
Threats (Central Gulf Coast: Hail and gusty winds will be the primary threats with any strong to severe storms across the Central Gulf Coast today.
Severe setup tomorrow: Convective available potential energy (instability), dew points, and shear are all expected to be favorable for organized severe storms tomorrow.
As stated above, a large mesoscale convective (complex/line of storms) is expected to form across East Texas or West Louisiana overnight tonight/early tomorrow morning, and advance east across the Central Gulf Coast through the day tomorrow. Additionally, some supercells, and possibly clusters of storms, are likely to form ahead of the mesoscale convective system.
Severe threat tomorrow: Overall, the severe weather threat tomorrow has increased, and severe storms are now likely across much of the Central Gulf Coast Region, where the SPC has placed an “enhanced” risk of severe weather from East Louisiana to the Western Florida Panhandle.
Severe weather will also be possible in the “slight” and “marginal” risk areas, which you can see in the graphic above.
Severe hazards tomorrow: All modes of severe weather will be possible tomorrow (hail, damaging winds, and tornadoes). However, damaging straight line winds and tornadoes will be the greatest threats. And according to the SPC, “a strong tornado or two is not out of the question.”
Heavy rainfall: Several rounds of heavy rainfall are still expected across the Central Gulf Coast through Tuesday (that includes tomorrow’s storms). However, nothing has changed regarding the heavy rainfall threat. For details on the it see our update from yesterday.
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