A pattern change still appears likely across the Gulf Coast Region, and essentially the entire Eastern and Central United States, next week.
The reliable ECMWF and its ensembles (EPS) have been forecasting, and continue to forecast, the large ridge of high the ridge of high pressure that has been locked in place across much of the U.S. for the past month, causing a drought across much of the Southern half of the country, to break down by mid to late week next week.
And now, the GFS and GFS ensembles (GEFS) have come into agreement with the ECMWF and EPS.
After the ridge breaks down, the ECMWF, GFS, EPS and GEFS forecast a strong trough of low pressure to dig into the Central and Eastern United States.
If this pattern change actually comes to fruition as the model guidance depicts (which still appears likely at this time) it would bring an end to the dry conditions and above average temperatures that have plagued the Gulf Coast Region, allowing rain, seasonal temperatures, and possibility of severe weather to return.
At this time, we still can’t say for certain that this pattern change will materialize; however, we can say that it is still looking more likely than not. If it does materialize, rain and seasonal temperatures would return to the Gulf Coast Region; and cooler than average temperatures and severe weather could be possible.
We will have another update out regarding this potential on Friday.
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