The West Caribbean Will Need to be Monitored for Tropical Development Next Week

The Western Caribbean will need to be monitored for tropical development next week, as model guidance has been, and still is, hinting at it.

For the past few days the GFS, ECMWF, and their ensembles (the EPS and GEFS) have been consistent in forecasting a very large, broad area of low pressure to form somewhere in the Southwest or Northwestern Caribbean by Monday or Tuesday of next week; and for it to consolidate into a tropical cyclone by mid to late week next week.

There is still a lot of uncertainty, though; and tropical development is not a sure thing. However, it is something that will need to be monitored.


If development were to occur in the West Caribbean next week it would not be unprecedented, as tropical cyclone development in the West Caribbean during October is climatologically favored.

Summary

To summarize, tropical development could occur in the West Caribbean next week and is something to keep an eye on. However, it is nothing to be concerned about yet.

We will have another update out tomorrow if tropical development still appears possible in the West Caribbean next week.