The Western Caribbean will need to be monitored for tropical development next week, as model guidance has been, and still is, hinting at it.
W Carib will need to be monitored for TC development next week, as model guidance is hinting at possible development there in in 6-10 days. pic.twitter.com/gbOW3A1gte
— GulfCoastStormCenter (@GCWXC) October 11, 2016
For the past few days the GFS, ECMWF, and their ensembles (the EPS and GEFS) have been consistent in forecasting a very large, broad area of low pressure to form somewhere in the Southwest or Northwestern Caribbean by Monday or Tuesday of next week; and for it to consolidate into a tropical cyclone by mid to late week next week.
There is still a lot of uncertainty, though; and tropical development is not a sure thing. However, it is something that will need to be monitored.
TC development in the W Carib next week would not be surprising, as TC development in the W Carib during OCT is climatologically favored. pic.twitter.com/qCnJmTpB8S
— GulfCoastStormCenter (@GCWXC) October 12, 2016
If development were to occur in the West Caribbean next week it would not be unprecedented, as tropical cyclone development in the West Caribbean during October is climatologically favored.
To summarize, tropical development could occur in the West Caribbean next week and is something to keep an eye on. However, it is nothing to be concerned about yet.
We will have another update out tomorrow if tropical development still appears possible in the West Caribbean next week.